- Value Betting Poker
- Sports Betting Systems
- Finding Value In Sports Betting
- Sports Betting Systems That Work
- Expected Value Betting
They always intend to offer odds that are less than value betting. For example, a real life bookmaker would offer odds on a coin toss in the range of 1.90 for heads and a 1.90 for tails. Let's say they receive £100 worth of bets on heads and £100 worth of bets on tails, accepting a. A value bet is simply a bet where the likelihood of a given outcome is higher than what the odds offered reflect. This means that the expected return is statistically positive. Value betting, therefore, means betting only when your chances of winning are higher than the bookmaker estimated. Value betting is a natural progression for these bettors. Typically, there will be people who need to find more strategies. As mentioned earlier, this could be because their accounts are gubbed. It could also be that they want to dedicate more time to their betting.
Value Betting Poker
- Best bookmakers for value betting. There are many ways and methods of acquiring a better understanding of sports betting. Many punters specialize in a mathematical approach and use rating systems based on past performances to predict future outcomes.
- Don't have the professional betting mind set already. It's all well and good having a system that works. But I still did not have a good enough plan to turn betting into a highly productive business. This book really set me straight.' Nigel Orr - Canada MY CONFIDENCE IS RESTORED 'After attempting to make money from betting close to a dozen times, I.
Are you tired of losing money via sports betting? Well, if you want to stop merely being an aficionado and become a true professional, you have to fully understand what a value bet and its expected value are.
What is Value Betting?
Value betting is a systematic approach to sports betting. A value bet is a bet that has a better percentage of return than the expected risk. Often bettors are deceived by false myths and are in need of a systematic approach. So, how can you spot a value bet?
First of all, you need to understand the difference between the chances a team has to win and the corresponding odds. The odds are the price a bookmaker is willing to pay for winning bets, called payout. The bookmaker fixes the price according to the probability a team has of winning, the lower the odds, the higher the price. For example, a 2.4 odd means that the bookmaker will pay you a payout of2,4 times the stake you bet, with a net return of 1.4 times the initial stake.
But how can you calculate the implied probability of the odds?
The probability of an odds is 100/the odds. Let’s make some examples!
- An odds of 2 means that the odds of winning amount to 50%. Why? Because 100/2 = 50
- An odd of 2.4 has a higher payout, but means that the probability of winning is lower: 41.6% because 100/2,4 = 41,6
Fair value and true probability
Do the odds represent the true probability a team has of winning? No. Unfortunately, it isn't that simple. The probability we have just calculated is just the implied probability of the odds, that is the price a bookmaker is willing to pay. It’s correct to say that it is calculated according to the chances of victory, but it also takes into account the business model of the bookmaker, who fixes his prices in order to make them attractive for bettors, and market behaviours that makes prices increase or decrease over time. However, if you want to have a mathematical approach to betting, you also have to learn about fair odds, the theoretical odds which represent the true probability a team has of winning.
Sports Betting Systems
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How to identify value bets
A value bet is simply a bet where the likelihood of a given outcome is higher than what the odds offered reflect. This means that the expected return is statistically positive.
Value betting, therefore, means betting only when your chances of winning are higher than the bookmaker estimated.
Here’s the process, step by step:
- calculate the implied probability;
- calculate true probability and therefore the fair odds;
- apply the expected value formula and calculate the expected return;
- if the expected return is positive,a value bet has been found.
Let’s make an example!
Let's say that Juventus is playing with odds of 3.6 to win.
An odd offered at 3.6 implies a probability of Juventus winning at 27.7% (100/3.6 = 27,7%).
However, according to the calculations, the chances of Juventus winning are about 45%, therefore the fair value of the bet is 100/45 = 2.2.
Here’s your first value bet!
If we apply the expected value formula (Fair probability – Market probability) / Market probability, we immediately understand that this match has a positive expected return:
EV = (45% - 27,7%) / 27,7% = 0,95
This means that for every euro I bet, I expect a positive return of 0,95€.
Finding true probability
As you may have guessed, value betting essentially means properly calculating the true probability of a bet and its fair odds. You can do it in two ways:
- through technical analysis (analysis of movements and comparison of average prices), based on the wisdom of the crowd, and then assuming that the average price is close to the fair odds (as most competitors do)
- through fundamental analysis, i.e. analysing match data (shots, passes, training, goals, won/lost matches, etc.) and then weightening the characteristics of the team on the basis of its past performance against the other team skills (i.e. how Mercurius works).
At Mercurius, we chose the second way because it is the only scientific method that can calculate sports events true probability. Thanks to AI algorithms and a great quantity of data, Mercurius can analyse and quantify past performances, taking into account won and lost games, shots, home / away matches, goals scored, etc.
Mercurius can evaluate the fitness of a team and therefore the real probability that it has to win.
Making consistent money betting is not rocket science, in fact, the methodology behind it is incredibly simple. Value Betting.
In this article, I will show you the simple but effective method of Value Betting, how it works, why it works and how to implement a Value Betting System!
What Are Value Bets?
Value Bets are bets placed at odds that are higher than the actual probability of the market.
The idea is simple and comes from the mathematical concept of Expected Value. Every time we make a bet or make a deal we are always looking for value.
The odds at which we bet, with all bookmakers, align approximately with the real probabilities of that market. Of course, they then adjust the odds to give themselves a small margin.
For example, if the market had a 50% chance of winning, the odds would be $2.00, they would then adjust to add a margin for themselves. We would be left with odds between $1.90 and $1.99, depending on the bookmaker
So, we can deduce that the key to making money investing in sports betting is to know the real probability of an event and always bet with a bookmaker that offers odds higher than that probability. This would be a bet that has value, a Value Bet.
For example, if the market had a 50% chance of winning, and the odds were $2.10 that would be a Value Bet. You are beating the probability.
If the bookmakers knew with 100% certainty the probability of an event the pre-match odds would never waver, it would be mathematically impossible to beat them. In the long run, we would always end up losing our money due to the margin or commission they charge.
Thankfully, sports betting odds are merely individual estimates made by each bookmaker. If we are able to calculate the true probabilities of markets better than the bookmakers, we can find miscalculations and inefficiencies in their odds, and profit.
Systematic and disciplined value betting is the key to beating the bookies and making consistent and long term profits in sports betting!
Examples of Value Bets
A great example to show how Value Bets work and are calculated is by using the probabilities calculated by FiveThirtyEight, a publication with a speciality in statistics and polling. For many sporting events, FiveThirtyEight has begun calculating and sharing their own probabilities.
This is a great example we can use to explain our core concept. Let’s go deeper into how these probabilities work and how we can work with them.
We’ll give FiveThirtyEight far too much credit and assume that the probability they have calculated is perfect. Exactly.
Spoiler: It’s not
Next, we will use these probabilities to work out the ‘Minimum Profitable Odds’. We’ll have a full explanation of Minimum Profitable Odds and what that means coming up.
Essentially, we are just calculating the inverse of the probability to find the lowest odds at which we could still be making a profit on the event, the Minimum Profitable Odds. Based on FiveThirtyEight’s probability calculations.
Result estimated by FiveThirtyEight Minimum Profitable Odds Calculation:
Dortmund 27% = 0.27 ▶ Odds = 1/0.27 = 3.70
Tie 22% = 0.22 ▶ Odds = 1/0.22 = 4.55
Munich 50% = 0.50 ▶ Odds = 1/0.50 = 2.00
That is it. There are your Minimum Profitable Odds. Any bet above those odds is profitable. If we find such a bet, we have found a bet with value. A Value Bet.
How to Find Value Bets?
After we have found our Minimum Profitable Odds, we move on to the next step. Comparing available odds using a bookmaker comparison tool.
Two such tools are:
Based on our calculations we would need to find odds at or above $2.00 on Munich to be profitable – we cannot find any.
For a tie we are looking for odds at or above $4.55 – again, none.
A bet on Dortmund at or above Minimum Profitable Odds would be $3.70 – We have some options!
AsianOdds and MarathonBet are both providing odds of $3.85, well above what we require. A bet on either of these bookmakers is deemed profitable in the long run, using FiveThirtyEight’s probabilities.
Let’s calculate our expected value if we were to take these odds, using the simple calculation below and assuming a bet size of $10.
$10(3.85/3.70 – 1) = $0.40
Finding Value In Sports Betting
An Expected Value of $0.40, It doesn’t seem much. However, that is a 4% Yield. On every bet.
We are in the process of writing an article about compound wealth and how a yield of just 4% can produce extraordinary results when paired with high bet volume! Subscribe to the newsletter and we’ll let you know when it is published!
Don’t have an account with either of these bookmakers? We still have 1xBet with a price of $3.78 which is also profitable. It is crucial that you have the ability to compare odds and bet with multiple bookmakers. The more accounts you open, the better.
So what would happen if we miscalculated or didn’t calculate our probability at all, then made a bet on Bayern to win at their best odds of $1.94, using Coolbet? Let’s do the same Expected Value calculation below!
Sports Betting Systems That Work
$10(1.94/2.00 – 1) = -$0.30
That is a -3% yield. A road straight to bankruptcy.
The key is consistently betting above the minimum profitable odds. There are certainly more considerations like bookmaker selection, staking method and betting psychology to take into account, we will discuss all of those things in future articles.
But at the core of our profitable betting philosophy is value betting.
The Value Betting System – Conclusion
If you have the ability to understand and calculate the true probability of a sporting event, you can calculate the Minimum Profitable Odds. Once you find that number, it is the simple process of searching the available odds for a betting opportunity.
When you are given a sports betting tip or recommendation, ask the tipster or service in question what the Minimum Profitable Odds are for that tip. Both to make certain you are betting above that figure and to verify the tipster, you cannot calculate a profitable betting opportunity without calculating the Minimum Profitable Odds.
No bet below the Minimum Profitable Odds is a Value bet, no bet made without understanding your Minimum Profitable Odds is a Value Bet. Be diligent and consistent with your Value Betting System.
I hope this article has helped outline the simple laws of Value Betting.
Now we just have to learn how to calculate accurate probabilities… Stay Tuned (and subscribe)
Expected Value Betting
Happy (Value) Betting!